幾年前對中國人壽股價走勢的預測

最近整理多年前的資料, 偶然發現在 2006年8月 在某一討論區發表的文章。 文章的主題是「中國人壽往後幾年股價的預測。」

其實因為在發表上述的文章之前, 非常幸運的根據估值多次估中2628在年中及年底的股價, 所以在 2006年中嘗試根據中國人壽的內涵值, 推測中國人壽往後幾年的股價。 現在重新閱讀, 不禁發出會心微笑, 不妨在這裡和大家分享。不過文章是英文, 如果當年不是用英文發表, 恐怕需要幾星期才能完成。

Hi,I have been forcasting the price of 2628 two years ago. Luckily, the forcast seems to be very accurate for the past two years. I am not sure if it will continue to be so accurate for the coming years. However it seems that year 2006 have the chance of 95% to meet my expectation.

Let’s me do a very rough forcast about the price of 2628 for the coming years. The data is based on the existing embedded value of 2628, the expected annual growth and the investment value factor.

Embedded Value:
– The existing embedded value of 2628 is about $4.25.

Assumption:
– The annual growth of 2628 is about 30%.
– The investment factor of 2628 assume to be 3.0 from 2005 to 2029 because the economic growth of this period is very high.

Let’s do the calculation:

Existing embedded value: $4.25

1. Year End of 2006
===================
Embedded value: $4.25 x 1.30 =$5.53
Expected Stock Price: $5.53 x 3.0 = $16.59

1. Year End of 2007
===================
Embedded value: $5.53 x 1.30 =$7.19
Expected Stock Price: $7.19 x 3.0 = $21.57

3. Year End of 2008
===================
Embedded value: $7.19 x 1.30 =$9.35
Expected Stock Price: $9.35 x 3.0 = $28.05

4. Year End of 2009
===================
Embedded value: $9.35 x 1.30 =$12.16
Expected Stock Price: $12.16 x 3.0 = $36.48

…………………………………….
…………………………………….
…………………………………….

Just for fun.. ……………..

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *